topic · 61 live markets · updated 2026-06-21

2026 FIFA World Cup: odds, the math & the roast

Every 2026 World Cup market Polymarket is pricing — outright winners, group games, spreads — with the implied odds and the breakeven math the price already contains. No tips, just arithmetic.

61 markets priced right now

Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5100¢Under · $5.8M · 100% implied Spread: Germany (-3.5)56¢Curaçao · $5.3M · 56% implied Spread: Spain (-1.5)100¢Cabo Verde · $2.9M · 100% implied Spread: Spain (-2.5)100¢Cabo Verde · $14.9M · 100% implied Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)61¢Switzerland · $3.3M · 61% implied Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)95¢Australia · $2.4M · 95% implied Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)95¢Saudi Arabia · $5.8M · 95% implied Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $52.7M · 100% implied Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?92¢No · $39.3M · 92% implied Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $58.7M · 100% implied Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $54.6M · 100% implied Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?100¢No · $28.6M · 100% implied Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?98¢No · $53.9M · 98% implied Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?100¢No · $6.2M · 100% implied Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $38.7M · 100% implied Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?59¢Yes · $3.3M · 59% implied Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?100¢No · $6.7M · 100% implied Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?100¢No · $10.6M · 100% implied Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $50.1M · 100% implied Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?98¢No · $44.6M · 98% implied Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?99¢No · $55.2M · 99% implied Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?98¢No · $8.4M · 98% implied Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $50.8M · 100% implied Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?61¢No · $4.7M · 61% implied Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $56.5M · 100% implied Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $60.8M · 100% implied Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?83¢No · $53.5M · 83% implied Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?95¢No · $4.0M · 95% implied Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?98¢Yes · $4.0M · 98% implied Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?94¢No · $49.0M · 94% implied Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $49.8M · 100% implied Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?99¢No · $64.0M · 99% implied Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?100¢No · $5.6M · 100% implied Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?98¢No · $54.3M · 98% implied Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?99¢No · $62.6M · 99% implied Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?98¢No · $54.1M · 98% implied Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?100¢Yes · $2.8M · 100% implied Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?100¢No · $19.8M · 100% implied Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?95¢No · $48.3M · 95% implied Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?98¢No · $43.7M · 98% implied Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?92¢No · $2.9M · 92% implied Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $56.0M · 100% implied Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?66¢No · $5.1M · 66% implied Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $53.3M · 100% implied Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?100¢Yes · $17.5M · 100% implied Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $54.9M · 100% implied Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $72.3M · 100% implied Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?100¢Yes · $4.1M · 100% implied Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?100¢No · $19.8M · 100% implied Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?85¢No · $48.8M · 85% implied Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?100¢Yes · $18.6M · 100% implied Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?99¢No · $43.7M · 99% implied Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?83¢Yes · $3.2M · 83% implied Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?99¢No · $48.1M · 99% implied Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?79¢No · $14.5M · 79% implied Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?100¢No · $52.0M · 100% implied Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?81¢No · $4.6M · 81% implied Will United States win on 2026-06-12?100¢Yes · $27.6M · 100% implied Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?77¢No · $12.6M · 77% implied Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?99¢No · $55.0M · 99% implied Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?98¢No · $70.4M · 98% implied

How to read these

Prices are probabilities: a market at 92¢ is the crowd saying 92% — and buying it pays ~8.7% if the obvious thing happens. To beat that you need a real edge measured in points, not vibes. Every page shows the payout-vs-risk so the math is yours, not ours.

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proof, not promises — every roast is pure arithmetic from Polymarket's public gamma API, and the engine settles its own calls publicly: Forward Ledger · losses included · today's verdict. Auto-generated; refreshes as markets trend. Not financial advice.