topic · 7 live markets · updated 2026-06-21

Trending Markets: odds, the math & the roast

Polymarket's highest-volume markets right now, each one roasted into pure arithmetic: implied odds, dead-money APR, breakeven math.

7 markets priced right now

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?76¢No · $23.6M · 76% implied Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?99¢No · $7.1M · 99% implied Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?100¢No · $4.0M · 100% implied Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?100¢No · $21.1M · 100% implied Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?100¢No · $30.5M · 100% implied Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?100¢No · $20.2M · 100% implied Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?99¢Yes · $22.5M · 99% implied

How to read these

Prices are probabilities: a market at 92¢ is the crowd saying 92% — and buying it pays ~8.7% if the obvious thing happens. To beat that you need a real edge measured in points, not vibes. Every page shows the payout-vs-risk so the math is yours, not ours.

Roast any market yourself → · See the engine's own settled record → · All topics →

proof, not promises — every roast is pure arithmetic from Polymarket's public gamma API, and the engine settles its own calls publicly: Forward Ledger · losses included · today's verdict. Auto-generated; refreshes as markets trend. Not financial advice.